Reckon: Decision Log
Structured thinking
Free · Designed for iPad. Not verified for macOS.
Make decisions you can defend. Reckon ranks hypotheses by what hasn't been knocked down — and tracks whether you were right over time.
Reckon ranks hypotheses by what hasn't been knocked down — not by what has the most support.
Most decision tools let you write a long pros-and-cons list and call it analysis. That doesn't help — you can rationalize anything in prose. Reckon makes you compare every piece of evidence against every hypothesis and ranks them by Heuer's ACH technique (the method CIA analysts use): fewest refutations first, with a tiebreak on most support.
WHAT YOU GET
• A starter library: pick from six pre-built example boards (shortseller, founder, researcher, investigator, life decision, doctor) or describe your situation in a paragraph and let on-device AI seed the matrix for you.
• Inline bias guardrails: when one hypothesis collects evidence all in the same direction, Reckon flags it. "Bears out" without "Cuts against" is the structural signature of confirmation bias.
• Falsifier pre-commitment: state up front what evidence would prove a hypothesis wrong. The app reminds you whether that evidence ever showed up.
• Steel-manning before ruling out: before you dismiss a hypothesis, Reckon asks for the strongest case for it. Stops you from throwing out the right answer too early.
• Pre-mortem: after you reach a conclusion, the app asks you to imagine being wrong about it in a year. Catches wishful thinking that even refutation-first scoring misses.
• Calibration tracking: when you finalize, set your confidence (0–100%) and a check-in date (1 week to 1 year). Come back when the date arrives, log the actual outcome, and Reckon shows your calibration curve over time. Are you actually right when you say you're 80% sure?
• Strict Bayes mode (optional): set explicit priors per hypothesis and the matrix shows real Bayesian posterior probabilities updating with each rating, using likelihood ratios per Tetlock/Heuer convention. Real probability, not a heuristic.
• Plain English mode: turns off the celestial vocabulary if you'd rather see "Hypotheses / Evidence / Matrix" than "Stars / Observations / Star chart." Same depth, less poetry.
• Templates: save your hypothesis structure (e.g. forensic-accounting suspects, differential-diagnosis options) for reuse. Faster on your 12th board than your 1st.
PRIVACY
Local-only. Your boards, evidence, conclusions, and calibration history stay on your device. No server, no analytics, no ads. AI seed runs entirely on-device via Apple Intelligence — your situation never leaves your phone.
WHY ACH
Confirming evidence is cheap. Refuting evidence distinguishes. Most decision tools amplify confirmation bias by rewarding biggest positive sum. Reckon does the opposite.
iOS 17+. AI seed and Strict Bayes posterior require iOS 26+ on Apple Intelligence-capable devices.
Ratings & Reviews
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The developer, MARION MORANETZ, indicated that the app’s privacy practices may include handling of data as described below. For more information, see the developer’s privacy policy .
Data Not Collected
The developer does not collect any data from this app.
Accessibility
The developer has not yet indicated which accessibility features this app supports. Learn More
Information
- Seller
- MARION MORANETZ
- Size
- 1.8 MB
- Category
- Productivity
- Compatibility
Requires iOS 17.0 or later.
- iPhone
Requires iOS 17.0 or later. - iPad
Requires iPadOS 17.0 or later. - Mac
Requires macOS 14.0 or later and a Mac with Apple M1 chip or later. - Apple Vision
Requires visionOS 1.0 or later.
- iPhone
- Languages
- English
- Age Rating
4+
- 4+
- Copyright
- © 2026 Marion Moranetz